Temperatures in Central Asia’s glacier-fed river basins could rise by 3–5°C by the end of the century and speed up the melting of glaciers, warns an Asian Development Bank (ADB) assessment reported by Turkmenportal.com.
The report, “From Glaciers to Farms”, analysed 40 years of weather and glacier data for four pilot basins: the Kuru, Naryn, Panj and Swat. It found that the region warmed by about 0.4°C per decade between 1981 and 2020. By 2085, winter temperatures in the Panj basin could rise by about 5°C. Summer precipitation could fall by about 30%, while winter precipitation could increase by up to 50%. Glaciers in the Panj basin cover about 4,000 square kilometres.
The ADB expects snowmelt and peak river flow to come earlier in the year and summer droughts to become more frequent. It also warns that long-term water availability will fall as glacial runoff declines, and that glacial lake outbursts and mudflows will become more likely. The bank recommends new reservoirs, modern irrigation, drought-resistant crops, more high-altitude monitoring stations and regional sharing of hydrological data.
The findings matter for Turkmenistan. The Panj is the main headwater of the Amu Darya, which feeds the Karakum Canal and irrigates most of the country’s cotton and wheat fields. A shrinking flow from the Pamirs would put pressure on agriculture downstream and could sharpen competition for water among Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, where the Taliban government is building the Qosh Tepa canal that will draw water from the Amu Darya.
CentralasianLIGHT.org,
November 9, 2026