Tajikistan’s economic growth is expected to slow in the medium term, according to a new report by the World Bank (WB). The organization projects a decline in GDP growth from 8.4% in 2024 to 7.0% in 2025, 4.9% in 2026, and 4.7% in 2027, reports Asiaplus.tj.
The report highlights several risks to the country’s economic outlook. The most significant is Russia’s increasingly strict migration policies, which could drastically reduce the inflow of remittances. The WB warns this would lead to slower economic growth, increased poverty, and a deterioration of fiscal and external trade balances.
Ongoing regional conflicts in Eurasia and the Middle East may also impact Tajikistan’s economy. The World Bank expects these tensions to drive up energy and logistics costs and disrupt global supply chains, leading to higher import expenses.
Additional risks include rising trade protectionism, making international trade more expensive for Tajikistan, and a projected weakening of commodity and oil prices.
The report notes that exports of key metals such as aluminum, zinc, and ores remain vulnerable to weak global demand. However, gold exports are expected to benefit from high prices in 2025, following record levels in 2024.
WB experts also caution that a potential normalization of relations between the US and Russia, accompanied by the easing of sanctions, could bring economic instability to Central Asian countries, although this scenario is highly uncertain.
Despite these challenges, the World Bank believes Tajikistan’s economy will remain resilient. Earlier, similar growth slowdown forecasts were issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development.
According to official data, among Central Asian countries, Kyrgyzstan showed the highest GDP growth in the first half of 2025, at 11.7%. Tajikistan ranked second with 8.1%, followed by Uzbekistan at 7.2%. Turkmenistan recorded 6.3% growth, and Kazakhstan 6.2%.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
August 20, 2025