Uzbekistan’s real GDP growth is projected to remain close to 6% in both 2025 and 2026, according to the IMF Staff Concluding Statement following the 2025 Article IV Mission to Uzbekistan. The economic outlook is supported by strong private consumption, ongoing investments, and continued structural reforms, despite increasing global uncertainties, reports Daryo.uz.
In 2024, Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 6.5%, driven by robust domestic demand. The current account deficit narrowed to 5.0% of GDP from 7.6% the previous year, thanks to sustained remittances, growing non-gold exports, and the fading effect of a one-time import surge in 2023. International reserves remained significant, and the consolidated budget deficit declined to 3.2%, reflecting reduced energy subsidies and more targeted social spending.
Headline inflation stood at 10.3% year-on-year as of March 2025. This increase was primarily due to previous hikes in energy and other regulated prices, which fed into broader price levels. The IMF expects inflation to ease to just above 8% by the end of 2025 and continue declining gradually with the help of tight monetary policy and reform progress.
However, the global environment presents new challenges. Rising global tariffs, tighter financial conditions, and commodity market volatility could impact Uzbekistan’s exports, capital flows, and external financing. Domestically, risks include widening fiscal deficits, upward revisions of borrowing limits, and contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and banks.
While the IMF forecasts a stable 6% GDP growth rate for Uzbekistan in 2025 and 2026, other Central Asian economies show varying trends:
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Kazakhstan is expected to see 5.0% economic growth in 2025, slowing to 3.9% in 2026. Inflation remains relatively high, with core consumer prices forecast at 7.2% (end of period) in 2025 and decreasing to 6.2% in 2026.
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Kyrgyzstan continues its strong post-pandemic recovery. Real GDP growth is projected to dip below 7% in 2025, and settle around 5.25% in the medium term as the temporary boost from unrecorded re-exports diminishes. Inflation is expected to stay within the 5–7% target range. While public debt has declined significantly, the current account deficit remains a concern, largely due to untracked re-exports and major infrastructure projects such as the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway.
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Tajikistan is forecast to see GDP growth slow to 6.7% in 2025 from 8.3% in 2024, as remittance inflows normalize. Inflation is expected to reach 6%, aligning with the central bank’s target. The fiscal deficit is projected to stay at 2.5% of GDP, supporting a continued decline in public debt. Foreign exchange reserves remain healthy, covering about seven months of imports.
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Turkmenistan was not included in the IMF’s most recent regional forecasts, making direct comparison with neighboring countries difficult.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
April 29, 2025