The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Tajikistan's long-term sovereign credit rating from B to B+, maintaining a stable outlook. The country's short-term rating remained at B. The decision was made on August 14, 2026, Asiaplus.tj reported.
The upgrade reflects Tajikistan's improved macroeconomic and external economic indicators. Among the factors that influenced S&P's decision, the agency cites sustainable economic growth, rising household incomes, a strengthening national currency, improved government debt servicing capacity, and the implementation of major infrastructure and strategic projects.
According to S&P estimates, Tajikistan's average economic growth from 2021 to 2025 was approximately 8.5%. As a result of economic growth and the strengthening of the somoni, GDP per capita is expected to reach approximately $1,850 in 2026—almost double the 2021 level. Meanwhile, net public debt, according to the agency's forecast, will remain below 20% of GDP over the next few years.
The rating upgrade resulted from a consistent improvement in the country's assessment. In August 2025, S&P affirmed Tajikistan's rating at B/B with a stable outlook. In February 2026, the rating was maintained, but the outlook was changed to positive amid the country's strengthening external position. Specifically, S&P estimates that international reserves increased from $4.4 billion at the end of 2024 to approximately $6.4 billion by the end of 2025. This positive trend has now led to an upgrade of the long-term rating to B+.
However, Tajikistan remains in the non-investment grade. The B+ rating demonstrates the country's ability to meet its financial obligations, but also indicates continued vulnerability to deteriorating economic and financial conditions. The investment grade on the S&P scale starts at BBB-.
Positive trends are also observed in assessments by other international agencies. In March 2026, Moody's Ratings upgraded Tajikistan's long-term sovereign rating from B3 to B2, also setting a stable outlook. The decision was based on sustained economic growth, improved budgetary and financial indicators, and ongoing reforms.
The simultaneous upgrade by two leading rating agencies strengthens Tajikistan's international financial standing and could improve its ability to attract external financing. Particularly important is the combination of high economic growth, relatively low public debt, and increased international reserves.
However, the upgrade does not mean the disappearance of structural risks. The country's economy remains significantly dependent on remittances from migrant workers and the situation in external labor markets, primarily in Russia.
Therefore, further improvement in the credit assessment will depend on Tajikistan's ability to maintain high growth rates, expand its domestic production base, and reduce its dependence on external sources of revenue. If these trends continue, the current upgrade to B+ could serve as an interim step toward further improving the country's sovereign creditworthiness.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
August 18, 2026