Tajikistan plans to increase electricity exports by an average of 8.7% per year over the next three years, according to the government-approved forecast of key macroeconomic indicators for 2026–2028, reports Asiaplus.tj.
Under the forecast, export volumes are expected to reach:
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2026 – 4.53 billion kWh (+8.5% vs. 2025)
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2027 – 4.92 billion kWh (+8.7%)
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2028 – 5.36 billion kWh (+8.9%)
Revenue from electricity exports is projected to rise proportionally:
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2026 – $147 million
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2027 – $164 million
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2028 – $187 million
For comparison, in 2024 Tajikistan exported about 2.5 billion kWh worth $113 million, mainly to Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and in smaller volumes to Kyrgyzstan.
Production Growth Targets
Domestic electricity generation is also expected to expand:
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2026 – 26 billion kWh
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2027 – 28.6 billion kWh
- 2028 – over 30.7 billion kWh
In 2024, output totaled 22.4 billion kWh, with 2025 projected at around 24 billion.
98% Renewable Power – and Untapped Potential
Tajikistan ranks among the global top six countries for renewable energy share: 98% of its electricity comes from hydropower. Yet only 5% of its hydro potential has been developed — a resource twice the combined energy needs of all Central Asian states.
Experts say this untapped capacity could position Tajikistan as a regional energy hub, especially with the CASA-1000 project, which will connect the country’s grid to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
New Hydropower Projects and Long-Term Strategy
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Construction continues on Rogun HPP (3,780 MW), the country’s flagship energy project.
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The Sebzor HPP (11 MW) came online in June.
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The Shurob HPP (800 MW) is under feasibility study.
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Joint projects with Uzbekistan are planned in the Zarafshan River basin (320 MW total).
Beyond hydropower, Tajikistan aims to tap into solar and wind energy. The country enjoys up to 300 sunny days annually, with solar capacity estimated at 369,600 MW and wind potential at 4,485 MW — both largely unused.
Energy analysts note that rising exports and the expansion of renewables will not only strengthen Tajikistan’s energy security but also make it a key player in Central Asia’s power market.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
July 18, 2025