The first signs of a steady decrease in labor migration from Tajikistan could appear within the next 10 years, and by mid-century the country’s labor export may almost come to an end. This forecast was published in the September Macroeconomic Review of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Asiaplus.tj reports.
Analysts note that in the coming two decades migration flows will be affected by the convergence of wage levels and demographic indicators in Tajikistan with those in Russia. In recent years, wages in Tajikistan, as well as in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia, have been gradually narrowing the gap with Russian wages, although the gap will not disappear completely.
In addition, Tajikistan’s demographic dynamics are gradually approaching those of more developed economies in the region: the birth rate has been declining by 1–2 people per thousand annually. This will also reduce the number of young people willing to seek work abroad.
At the same time, the EDB emphasizes that migrant remittances remain a key driver of the country’s economy. In 2024, they accounted for almost half of Tajikistan’s GDP (47.6%). For two decades, the republic has been among the global leaders in the ratio of remittances to GDP.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
29 сентября 2025 года