Kazakhstan's financial system has become one of the main transit hubs for the redistribution of international currency flows, especially amid sanctions pressure on neighboring economies. In December 2025, the volume of over-the-counter transactions for the US dollar/tenge pair reached a historic high, exceeding normal levels by almost five times, Zakon.kz reports, citing analysts at the First Credit Bureau and data from the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
According to official statistics, Kazakhstani banks bought $38.3 billion and sold $37.8 billion in over-the-counter transactions in December. By comparison, average monthly volumes in the first nine months of 2025 were approximately $7.8–7.9 billion, and for all of 2024, no more than $8.8 billion. Thus, the December surge was a record since at least 2015.
Experts note that the growth is primarily due to the activity of non-resident banks: in December, purchases from foreign institutions reached $32.8 billion, while sales reached $32.3 billion. These levels have been maintained for three consecutive months.
The dynamics of trading in other currencies is also particularly noteworthy. Since September 2025, monthly over-the-counter transactions in the euro/tenge pair have consistently exceeded 3 billion euros, while previously such volumes were measured in tens or, at most, hundreds of millions. A similar surge was observed in November 2024 for the yuan/tenge pair.
Many analysts, including Russian media and Bloomberg sources, attribute these trends to attempts by Russian companies to circumvent sanctions restrictions, particularly after the Moscow Exchange was disconnected from international settlement systems. According to some reports, some yuan transactions may have been conducted through Kazakhstani banks, circumventing official statistics, including using third currencies.
At the same time, ruble activity remains high: both on the over-the-counter market and on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE), trading volumes in the Russian currency have shown steady growth since mid-2024.
At the same time, experts note an important shift: the tenge is gradually losing its dependence on the ruble, indicating the diversification of Kazakhstan's financial ties. However, the country's growing role as a regional currency hub raises questions about transaction transparency and potential risks to financial stability.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
January 14, 2026